Here is my weekly stock market outlook for the week of April 21, 2025. It helps me determine if I’ll be placing new trades during the week, gives me a sense of market health, and how much or little of my capital I want to deploy.

Conditions DO change during the week, and as the conditions change so does the outlook. This is why, each week, I discuss what I like and don’t like. I monitor market health daily, although this article is only updated once weekly.

The stock market outlook is based on:

• how the major indices are performing
• “Market Health Indicators”
• recent watchlist and trade performance
• sector performance

My swing trading is based on: Overall market conditions (discussed below) –> strong/weak individual stocks for longs or shorts –> patterns –> trade triggers.

Stock Market Outlook for This Week

For the week of April 21, stock market conditions are mixed but still warrant a lot of caution. Gold and gold stocks remain in an uptrend. Bitcoin has NOT turned bullish yet.

Here are the current stock watchlists:

• Best Swing Trading Stocks List for April – Two lists, one with very strong stocks and one with very weak stocks.
  
  
• You can also check for setups on these lists, as they showcase strong performers: Best Performing ETFs and Best Performing Stocks.
  
  
• For those also interested in investing: the Buy the Dip Stock List, the Buy & Hold Stock List, and Best Long-Term Dividend Stocks (investing is different than swing trading; have trading plans for both).

How the Market Indexes Are Doing

I look at 4 different US indices because they each tell a different story about overall stock market health. The stock market is healthiest—and swing trading stocks on the long side is most profitable—when all these indexes are in uptrends. Here’s what each of the 4 indices represents:

• Nasdaq 100 – Tech stocks
• S&P 500 – Large US companies
• NYSE Composite – A wide array of stocks, varying in size and industry
• Russell 2000 – Smaller companies

The Canadian index tracks large-cap Canadian stocks.

Charts provided by TradingView , the charts I use.

From a price action perspective, the indices are in a downtrend.

Bitcoin broke below its prior range with a strong drop. The pullback to the upside has been rejected by the old range. Price action remains bearish. Need a move up and out of the current box to provide the first sign of a possible bullish turnaround.

Gold is in an uptrend along with the mining stocks.

State of the Market Health Indicators

The following chart shows the market health indicators I track.

They tell me the condition of the stock market overall, and whether it’s a good time to swing trade individual stocks.

Market Health Indicators are mixed, and still warrant extreme caution Shorts are an option, but just as scary in the current environment. With some health indicators positive, I would consider some long exposure.

• Volume not relevant at this time. Could get a follow-through day this week. Higher volume than the prior day required, coupled with a 1.5%+ advance in the S&P 500.
  
  
• The dark blue bars are the daily percentage movement of the S&P 500. Big moves to the downside are associated with downtrends and turning points. Still extremely volatile with a greater than 2% drop on April 16. Poor.
  
  
• The blue line is the cumulative NYSE Advance-Decline Line. ADL is holding ok relative to the S&P 500. It is in an short-term uptrend. Neutral.
  
  
• The blue columns are NYSE up volume divided by NYSE total volume. Values of 90 or higher show very strong buying; values of 10 or below show very strong selling. 90% upside day on April 9. Good.
  
  
• 24% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day moving average. 19% of all US stocks are above their 50-day moving average. It’s generally much easier to swing trade profitably (on the long side) when most stocks are above their 50-day average. When this indicator is below 50% it tends to be sideways or a downtrend for most stocks/indexes. Right on the cusp. Poor.
  
  
• The ultimate indicator is how many quality setups there are and how trades are working. You can look at your own results and watchlists recently to determine whether this is an easy money environment or hard on the short side and/or long side.
  

The Complete Method Stock Swing Trading Course covers my entire method of swing trading stocks. 

Sectors on the Move

I don’t typically focus on Utility or Consumer Defensive stocks because they don’t move as much in good market conditions as the other sectors. In poor market conditions, these sectors hold up a bit better but are often still dropping.

Main sectors to watch: Energy, Materials, and Healthcare were strong last week. No sector has been strong over all the time frames (gold, an industry within Materials, has been).

Sector performance provided by Chartmill. Charmill’s sector performance is an equal-weighted average of all stocks in a sector. This helps reflect more stocks in the sector than just the largest market-cap ones.

The article, How to Scan for the Strongest Stocks in the Strongest Sectors covers how to find high-momentum stocks by looking at sector performance in Finviz, StockRover, StockFetcher, or StockCharts. It also shows you how to determine when money is flowing into or out of a sector.

There are times when market conditions may not be so good, but certain INDUSTRIES are really performing well. For example, gold or oil stocks may be rallying hard while the major indices are flat or declining. Or Semiconductors may be hot while the indices are flat.

It is possible to trade in these “hot” sectors even while market conditions may not be ideal…just realize nothing can fight the market for long. Either the market starts moving up or eventually the hype in the hot stocks ends and they are coming down. With such trades we are often on borrowed time, so I am more inclined to trailing stop losses to avoid giving back all the profits if the target isn’t reached. Basically, take what you can get. Consider how much capital you are willing to deploy in such situations. That is a personal choice.

You can see how various industries have been performing over various time frames on Chartmill, here.

What I’m Doing Right Now

Enjoying the volatility by day trading. Gold stocks remain an option for trading, and will consider some limited exposure outside that industry. Bitcoin is still dead to me for now.

What I like about day trading is that I can trade every day. Swing trading has periods of action and inaction.

You can check out my stock day trading methods in the Price Action Stock Day Trading Course.

See how I day trade forex in the EURUSD Day Trading Course.

Don’t want to have to analyze market conditions and pick individual stocks to trade? You can also passively invest. In my “long-term account,” I buy the same ETFs every month, regardless of market conditions. Buy and hold. Simple. It doesn’t make as much as swing trading or day trading, but it is much less work.

By Cory Mitchell, CMT

Disclaimer: Nothing in this article is personal investment advice, or advice to buy or sell anything. Trading is risky and can result in substantial losses, even more than deposited if using leverage.

Historic Conditions: