As a swing trader, each week I do a stock market outlook to determine if I’ll be placing new trades during the week or not. The stock market outlook gives me a sense of market health, and thus how much or little of my capital I want to deploy.
Here is my stock market outlook for the week of September 18, 2023.
The stock market outlook is based on:
- how the major indices are performing
- “Market Health Indicators”
- recent watchlist and trade performance
- sector performance
My swing trading is based on: Overall market conditions (discussed below) –> strong/weak individual stocks for longs or shorts –> patterns –> trade triggers.
Stock Market Outlook for This Week
Heading into the week of Sept 18, market conditions are poor. Currently holding off on deploying capital on swing trades until conditions improve.
Here are the current stock watchlists:
- Best Swing Trading Stocks List for September
- Current Stock Watchlist (setups in the making)
- Can also check for setups on the following regularly updated lists: Best Performing ETFs, Best Performing Stocks, Buy the Dip Stock List, and Long-Term Holds.
Here is a video summary of the stock market outlook for this week:
How the Market Indexes Are Doing
I look at 4 different US indices because they each tell a different story about overall stock market health. The stock market is healthiest—and swing trading stocks on the long side is most profitable—when all these indexes are in uptrends. Here’s what each of the 4 indices represents:
- Nasdaq 100 – Tech stocks
- S&P 500 – Large US companies
- NYSE Composite – A wide array of stocks, varying in size and industry
- Russell 2000 – Smaller companies
The Canadian index tracks large-cap Canadian stocks.
Charts provided by TradingView, the charts I personally use.

Market Summary (Indexes) on TradingView
From a price action perspective, the indices are mixed. Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and NYSE Comp. are trying to recover after a pullback in August. But that recovery was very sluggish last week and ended on a down note. The Russell 2000 is trading near multi-month lows.
The Canadian market has been rallying and is approaching the top of the 2023 range.
Overall, we can say conditions are not ideal. The Market Health Indicators below also tell us this. Thus I will be staying away from taking long swing trades until conditions improve a bit more.
Bitcoin still hanging out near the June low. Watch for a false breakout lower (a buying opportunity), or the possibility of a legitimate breakout lower.
State of the Market Health Indicators
The following chart shows the market health indicators I track. They tell me the condition of the stock market overall, and whether it’s a good time to swing trade individual stocks.

S&P 500 Index Chart on TradingView
Market health indicators are signaling caution. Health indicators are not in good shape currently.
- 33% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day moving average. 33% of all US stocks are above their 50-day moving average. It’s generally much easier to swing trade profitably (on the long side) when most stocks are above their 50-day average. When this indicator is below 50% it tends to be sideways or a downtrend for most stocks/indexes. Poor.
- Volume is not currently relevant (the spike on Friday means nothing…it was options expiration).
- The dark blue bars are the daily percentage movement of the S&P 500. Big moves are associated with downtrends and turning points. Small values are associated with an uptrend. No big drops since a series of them in March. Good.
- The blue line is the cumulative NYSE Advance-Decline Line. It is moving with the S&P 500 and not showing signs of strength. Neutral to Poor.
- The blue columns are NYSE up volume divided by NYSE total volume. It tracks buying and selling enthusiasm. Two back-to-back 80% upside days on Aug 28 and 29. That is equivalent to one 90% upside day. Bullish.
- The ultimate indicator is how many quality setups there are and how trades are working. Overall, I am pretty happy with how the stocks on my most recent Stock Watchlist held up (and several rallied aggressively). That’s a good sign. Some trades are working, but need to be pretty selective out there.
The Complete Method Stock Swing Trading Course covers my entire method of swing trading stocks. Now is a great time to review the material and prepare for the opportunities that are unfolding.
Sectors on the Move
I don’t typically focus on Utility or Consumer Defensive stocks because they don’t move as much in good market conditions as the other sectors. In poor market conditions, these sectors hold up a bit better but are often still dropping.
Main sectors to watch: Energy, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Financials, Basic Materials.

Sector performance provided by Finviz.
The article, How to Scan for the Strongest Stocks in the Strongest Sectors covers how to find high-momentum stocks by looking at sector performance in Finviz, StockRover, StockFetcher, or StockCharts. It also shows you how to determine when money is flowing into or out of a sector.
What I’m Doing Right Now
Sitting in cash right now, waiting for more conditions to improve.
I also day trade stocks and the EURUSD. What I like about day trading is that I can trade every day. Whereas swing trading has periods of action and inaction.
You can check out my stock day trading methods in the Price Action Stock Day Trading Course.
See how I day trade forex in the EURUSD Day Trading Course.
Don’t want to have to analyze market conditions and pick individual stocks to trade? You can also passively invest. In my “long-term account,” I buy the same ETFs every month, regardless of market conditions. Buy and hold. Simple. It doesn’t make as much as swing trading or day trading, but it is much less work.
By Cory Mitchell, CMT
Disclaimer: Nothing in this article is personal investment advice, or advice to buy or sell anything. Trading is risky and can result in substantial losses, even more than deposited if using leverage.
Historic Conditions:
Week Of: | Indices: | Conditions | Watchlist/Trade Performance | What I’m Doing: | Top Sectors (Ex: Utlt, Con Def) |
Sept 11 | Trying to recover | Poor | Ok | Awaiting better conditions | Energy, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Financials, and Technology |
Sept 5 | Pulling back | Poor (right on the cusp of turning good) | Nothing | Awaiting better conditions before buying | Energy, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, and Technology |
Aug 29 | Pulling back | Poor | Nothing | Not buying | Energy, Consumer Cyclical, Technology, and Industrials |
Aug 22 | Pulling back | Mixed/poor | Nothing | Not buying | Energy, Consumer Cyclical, Technology, and Industrials |
Aug 14 | Uptrends (in pullback) | Good (approaching key levels though) | Good | Deploying Capital | Energy. Healthcare stronger recently. Consumer Cyclical, Technology, and Industrials took a hit recently, but strong over the longer term. |
Aug 7 | Uptrends (in pullback) | Good | Good | Deploying Capital | Consumer Cyclicals/Discretionary, also Basic Materials, Financials, and Energy moving up. |
July 31 | Uptrends | Good | Good | Deploying Capital | Consumer Cyclicals/Discretionary, Technology, and Industrials. Basic Materials, Financials, and Communication Services moving up. |
July 24 | Uptrends | Good | Good | Deploying Capital | Consumer Cyclicals/Discretionary, Technology, and Industrials. Basic Materials, Financials, and Real Estate moving up |
July 17 | Uptrends | Good | Good | Deploying Capital | Consumer Cyclicals/Discretionary, Technology, and Industrials. Basic Materials and Real Estate moving up. |
July 10 | Uptrends | Good | Good | Deploying Capital | Consumer Cyclicals/Discretionary, Technology, and Industrials. |
July 3 | Uptrends | Good | Good | Deploying capital | Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclicals/Discretionary, and Industrials. Most sectors performing pretty well. |
June 26 | All US indices in at least short-term uptrends | OK | Ok | Deploying Capital | Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Cyclicals/Discretionary, and Industrials. |
June 19 | All US indices in at least short-term uptrends | Ok | Ok | Deploying Capital | Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclicals, and Industrials |
June 12 | Mixed trends, but all moving. Nasdaq & S&P 500 strong. | Ok | Ok | Deploying capital | Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Cyclicals |
June 5 | Mixed trends, but all moving up | Ok | Ok | Deploying some capital | Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclicals |
May 30 | Nasdaq uptrend, rest mixed | On cusp | Improving | Deploying some capital | Technology and Communication Services |
May 22 | Nasdaq uptrend, rest mixed | On cusp | Flat | Deploying some capital (if I see very high-quality setups) | Technology and Communication Services |
May 15 | Nasdaq uptrend, rest mixed | On cusp | Flat | Deploying some capital (if I see very high-quality setups) | Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare |
May 8 | Nasdaq uptrend, rest are mixed | On Cusp | Flat | Deploying some capital (if I see very high-quality setups) | Technology and Healthcare |
May 1 | Nasdaq uptrend, rest are mixed | Improving/On the Cusp | Flat | Deploying some capital (if I see very high-quality setups) | Healthcare, communication services, and technology |
April 24 | Nasdaq uptrend, rest are mixed | Improving/On the Cusp | Flat | Deploying some capital (if I see very high-quality setups) | Pretty much everything doing well in the last month. Healthcare doing well on all time frames. |
April 17 | Nasdaq upternd, rest are mixed | Improving/On the Cusp | Good | Deploying some capital if I see quality setups. Very selective. | Basic materials, Energy strong recently. Healthcare decent on all time frames. Technology and Communication Services still worth watching. |
April 10. | Nasdaq uptrend. Other indices are neutral to weak. | Poor | No trades. Not much on watchlist. | Nothing | Technology, consumer cyclical, and communications services |
April 3. | Pullbacks or downtrends, except Nasdaq in uptrend | Poor | No trades | Nothing | Technology, consumer cyclical, and communications services |
March 27 | In pullback, several near prior lows, SP 500 mid-range, Nasdaq100 at swing high | Poor | No trade | Nothing | Technology and communications services |
March 20 | Pullback, possible reversal | Poor | No trade | Nothing | Technology and communications services |
March 13 | Pullback | Poor | No trade | Nothing | Technology, industrials, and energy holding up the best |
March 6 | Pullback | Cusp | Good (but few triggering) | Buying (very cautious | Basic Materials, Consumer Cyclicals, Communication Services, Technology, Industrials, and Financials |
Feb. 27 | Pullback | Cusp | Good (but few triggering) | Buying (cautious) | Consumer Cyclicals, Communication Services, Technology, Real Estate, Industrials, and Financials |
Feb 20 | Flat the last week | Good | Good (but few if any setups) | Buying | Consumer Cyclicals, Communication Services, Technology, Real Estate, Industrials, and Financials |
Feb. 13 | Moving Up | Good | Good | Buying | Consumer Cyclicals, Communication Services, Technology, Real Estate, and Financials |
Feb 6 | Moving up | Good | Good | Buying | Consumer Cyclicals, Communication Services, Technology, Real Estate, and Financials |
Jan 30 | Moving up | Good | Good | Buying | Basic materials, Consumer Cyclicals, Communication Services, Technology, Real Estate, and Financials |
Jan 23 | Moving up | Good | Good | Buying | Basic material, everything else doing pretty well |
Jan 16 | Moving up | Good | Good | Buying | Basic materials, Industrials, Financials, and healthcare |
January 9 | Moving up after a sideways period | OK | OK | Buying | Basic materials, Industrials, Financials, and Healthcare |
January 1, 2023 | Short-term downtrends | Poor | OK | No new purchases | Energy, basic materials, Industrials, and Healthcare |
Dec. 19 | Short-term downtrends | Poor | OK | No new purchases | Basic materials, Industrials, and Healthcare |
Dec. 12 | Right on the cusp of a downtrend. Could go either way. | Still ok, but right on the cusp. | Ok, not great. | Conservatively buying. Limited capital. If indices drop, not buying. | basic materials, Industrials, healthcare, and financials |
Dec. 5 | short-term uptrends | Good | Good | Buying if setups occur | basic materials, Industrials, healthcare, and financials |
Nov. 28 | short-term uptrends | Good | Good | Buying if setups occur | basic materials, Industrials, and Financials |
Nov. 21 | short-term uptrends | Good | Good | Buying if setups occur | basic materials, Industrials, and Financials |
Nov. 14 | short-term uptrends | Good | Ok | Buying if setups occur | basic materials, Industrials, Financials, and Energy |
Nov. 7 | short-term uptrend, except Nasdaq 100 | Mediocre. Everything good except recent >2% daily drop in S&P 500 | Doing Ok, nothing great. | Holding current positions. Not taking new positions this week. | energy, industrials, financials, and basic materials |
Oct. 31 | Short-term uptrend | Ok | Doing ok, nothing amazing | starting to take some positions | energy, industrials, financials, and healthcare |
Oct 24 | Downtrend, but pushing up at prior swing highs | FTD + Lowry upside day | Not published publically, But I did scan – LLY, plus a few others. All did very well in the past week | Started taking some positions. | energy, basic materials, healthcare, financials, and industries |
Oct 17 | Downtrend: ST, LT | Poor, All | N/A – no trades, stocks performing poorly | No long swing trades | energy, healthcare, financials, and industries |
Oct 10 | Downtrend: ST, LT | Poor, All | N/A – no trades, stocks performing poorly | No long swing trades | Energy, ind, basic mat, finc, holding up best over all all the time frames |
Oct 3 | Downtrend: ST, LT | Poor, All | N/A – no trades, stocks performing poorly | No long swing trades | Industrials, Con Cyc, and Fin holding up better than most, but still down. Energy Up on the week. |
Sept. 26 | Downtrend: ST, LT | Poor, All | N/A – no trades, stocks performing poorly | No long swing trades | 3&1 month – all negative. Fin, Ind, Con Cyc holding up the best. |
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