Stocks to Buy for a Long-Term Hold

This is a list of long-term hold stocks that meet certain criteria for growth and quality. These criteria have a tendency to produce stocks that outperform the broader market over the long-run. The idea is to buy and hold the stocks as long as they continue to exhibit the long-term hold criteria.

This list is updated monthly, although the stocks on it don’t change very often.

Stocks to Buy For a Long-Term Hold

Here is a list of stocks to consider for buying as a long-term hold.

stocks to hold for the long-term as of June 14 2022

As of June 13, 2022, the list is:
PGR, DG, UNH, MA, TMO, COST, BRO, SPGI, ACN, ENTG, TSM

This doesn’t mean these are the best-performing stocks, or that other stocks are bad. It just means these are the only stocks that meet the strict criteria discussed below.

List created using StockRover.com.

Criteria for Finding Stocks to Buy for a Long-Term Hold

The list of long-term hold stocks is created by filtering for North American stocks that exhibit the following traits:

5-Year EPS Growth Estimate > 8%
5-Year Average Yearly Increase in Sales > 8%
5-Year Average Yearly Increase in Earnings Per Share (EPS) > 8%
EPS 2 years ago is greater than 5 years ago is greater than 8 years ago

Continue to hold positions as long as the stocks meet the above criteria.

Max Drawdown in the last 10 years is less than 41%
Price > $5
Average Daily Volume > 1 million
Annualized 5-year returns vs S&P 500 > 6%
Shareholder Yield > 0

The above criteria are additional filters that help make sure the stock is acting correctly, and they filter out smaller companies or extremely volatile stocks when doing the initial scan.

When to Buy Long-Term Hold Stocks

The following filters help make sure we are not overpaying. The stocks on this list generally don’t perform as well when the P/E and Forward P/E get above the levels mentioned below. There may be exceptions, but as a general guideline look to buy below these levels:

Price/Earnings < 40
Forward P/E < 35

While these are growth stocks because they are growing their sales and earnings, they are generally stable and well-established companies. Therefore, consider buying them (on average) when the P/E ratio is below 45 and Forward P/E is below 35. You can see the range of P/E values for each stock over the last five years at the far right of the list of stocks above.

GENERALLY, buying these stocks when they have fallen 15% off a recent high is often a good entry point. That doesn’t mean the stock can’t fall more (some of these stocks have fallen as much as 40% in the last 10 years before recovering), but most declines in these stocks are 15% to 25% before they turn higher again.

You can see how far below the yearly high the stock is trading on the stock list above. On the left side of the chart, Price vs 52-Week high shows the current price as a % of the high. If it says 90, that means the stock is trading 10% below its high. If it says 60, that means the stock is 40% below its high because the high is 100.

Here are the current readings for scan criteria, as of the June 13 close.

long-term holds scan criteria and current readings June 13

Performance of the Long-Term Hold Stocks

The following chart shows the collective performance of the current long-term hold stocks list over the last 5 years.

Things to Be Aware Of

This scan is backward-looking and can only incorporate forward estimates. If a stock no longer meets the criteria then its performance may suffer. The criteria is designed to look for companies with attractive qualities which are generally associated with a long-term rising stock price.

If buying on a decline, it is unknown how far the stock may fall. Although, there is always demand for solid companies. As long as the criteria are met, there is a reasonable expectation that the stock will likely produce a positive return over the next several years if buying on 15% to 25% declines below recent highs. This may require some patience at times awaiting an entry.

There are no certainties when buying individual stocks because anything can happen within an individual company. That said, the performance of such companies can be excellent as the chart above shows.

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By Cory Mitchell, CMT

Disclaimer: Nothing in this article is personal investment advice, or advice to buy or sell anything. Trading is risky and can result in substantial losses, even more than deposited if using leverage.