EURUSD Day Trading Strategy Week In Review (Feb 1-5) +27.56R

A good week for EURUSD day trading. There was lots of opportunity during the 2 hour window that I trade (approximately 8:30 to 10:30 AM EST). I trade on a 1-minute chart and use the strategies discussed in this review. The week’s charts with the trades are below.

Totals for this week:

+18.06R
- “R” is a standardized risk amount. It could be 1% of the account, 0.5% of the account, or any amount you choose based on your position sizing method.
9 wins /16 trades = 56% win rate
Potential was +27.56R. In other words, my mistakes cost me about 7R this week.
65% efficiency (18/ 27.56)
Reward to Risk (based on all potential trades):
- Winners: 2.5, 2.5, 2.5, 2.46, 2.5, 3.36, 2.25, 2.47, 2.73, 2.5, 2.5, 2.04, 0.05
  = 30.36/ 13 = 2.335
- Losers: 1, 1.12, 0.98, 0.13, 1.2
  = 4.43/ 5 = 0.886
- 2.335 / 0.886= 2.635
Trades not taken: 10R.
Trades taken that shouldn’t have been: 0.87R

A lot of these stats you can track in the free and downloadable forex day trading log (Excel spreadsheet).

Strategy Totals

These are optimal results for the strategies, including trades I missed and excluding trades I shouldn’t have been in. This is so I can ascertain over time which strategies are working the best and producing the most profit potential.

Rounded Tops and Bottoms strategy profit: +11.57R
(-1, 2.5, 2.5, -1.12, -0.98, 2.5, 2.5, 0.05, 2.5, 3.36, -1.2, 2.46)
Snap Back strategy profit: +2.04R
Double Pumps strategy profit: +10.07R
(2.47, 2.73, 2.5, 2.5, -0.13)
Double Pump Variation strategy profit: 2.25R

No squeeze plays or triple pumps this week, both of which are quite rare.

Daily Charts and Trades

Charting provided by TradingView.

My Focus for the Upcoming Week

I had launched the Complete Method Stock Swing Trading Course the prior week, so this week I felt a lot less distracted with that work being fishined.

This week saw my old memisis the ‘missed trade’ return. Missed trades cost me about 10R this week. I made some pretty long notes on my chart on Friday, because I noticed almost a sense of laziness when it comes to skipping trades. I will often agree with a reason for not taking a trade without further probing. I need to go through my full assessment of a trade before deciding not to take it. I will need to write my thoughts down on this and see why it keeps popping up.

This week had a lot of profit potential, while the prior week did not. But that’s why I just keep doing what I am doing. The strategies work well, even though market condtions aren’t ideal all the time. Even with some days and weeks, January produced more than +63R in profit potential.

By Cory Mitchell, CMT

I will have a new EURUSD day trading course out by June, but in the meantime, learn the basics of trading the forex market with the Forex Trading Introduction Course.

Chris H

· Reply

February 14, 2021 at 11:14 AM

Thanks Cory, that helps. The video was great. It’s good to see the whole process in action. Looking forward to the Day Trading Course when it comes out. : )

Chris

February 12, 2021 at 10:29 PM

Hi Cory,
Great summary, thanks for sharing this.

Do you dynamically adjust your profit targets during the trading day based on the most recent volatility in the price swings, or do you keep a static 2.5 R:R based on your longer term experience with the EUR/USD.

Also if the rounded top/bot consolidation is wider than a certain value, do you start to reduce the R:R ratio or choose to skip the trade to keep your performance average at approx 2.5 R:R.

Thanks,
Chris

Cory Mitchell, CMT
· Reply

Author

February 13, 2021 at 6:00 PM

My target stays at 2.5: pretty much all the time. But I may adjust slightly downward if it is a low volatility day or the 2.5:1 is beyond a major resistance or support area which may be hard for the price to breakthrough. There was an example in my recorded day trading session I put on YouTube: https://youtu.be/jIYk8dTiKPQ

Also, when there is lots of movements and I think I can get a bit more, I may expand my target beyond 2.5:1. But as a general rule, it stays at 2.5, and that is probably 90% of my trades. On my charts, the actual numbers may end up slightly different (2.6, 2.43, 2.76, etc), but has more to do with position sizing being slightly over or under ideal.

As for your other question, If a consolidation is too big, I typically just skip the trade. Based on the price moves that have already happened I will check to make sure that it looks the price is moving enough to reasonably hit my 2.5:1 target. I do this by looking at the size of prior price waves. If the price is only moving 10 pips than reversing, I am not going to take a trade where the target is 12 or 15 pips based on a 2.5:1 reward risk. Because the target is beyond what the price has been moving. I will just sit on the sidelines in that case.