This is how several of the EURUSD day trading strategies I am using performed during the month of January. I only trade for approximately 2 hours each day, so these results are for the period between roughly 8:30 and 10:30 AM EST, during the London and New York overlap period. I trade using a 1-minute chart.
The results are broken down based on the potential for each strategy. Executing every trade perfectly is not an easy task, so actual trading results will typically be lower. It the goal to continually progress and trade the strategies as well as possible. Once we are trading a strategy very well, then more strategies can be added to further improve performance.
I use a 2.5:1 reward to risk on every trade. I only exit early for high-impact news announcements or if another valid signal develops in the opposite direction while I am in a trade.
EURUSD Day Trading Strategy Profit Potential For Month of January
The following chart breaks down profit potential by week. These numbers come from actual trades, plus missed trades that should have been taken, and deducting trades that were taken that shouldn’t have been (didn’t align with the strategies).
|January Total Profit Potential||+63.27R|
|Average Profit Per Day||20 days||3.16R/Day|
|Average Trades Per Day||About 70|
“R” is a standardized risk amount. It could be 1% of the account, 0.5% of the account, or any amount you choose based on your position sizing method. For example, risking 1% of the account per trade, the profit potential for the strategies was 18.66% for January 19-22.
To see the charts and trades for each week, see the links in the table above.
Remember, these figures are based on trading a strategy perfectly, based on the strategy parameters. The goal, which can take years, is to develop enough discipline and focus to approach the ideal/strategy profit potential number in our actual trading.
Also, to realize these returns, an ECN broker is pretty much required, ideally with a small spread. ECN brokers charge a commission, so commission costs, which can vary greatly, need to be deducted from the profit potential.
EURUSD Day Trading Strategy Totals
These numbers are how each strategy performed. They are my own trades, plus missed trades, less trades I took that I shouldn’t have.
The totals for the strategies don’t exactly match the potential profit for the month because there were a couple of trades that fit the parameters for more than one strategy.
I have included one chart from the month that highlights the strategy
Rounded Bottoms (RB) and Tops (RT): +32.43R
Jan. 25-29: +3.6R
Jan. 19-22: +6.42R
Jan. 11-15: +8.91R
Jan. 4-8: +13.5R
Double Pump Variations (DP variation) +14.65R
Jan. 25-29: -1.76R
Jan. 19-22: +2.5R
Jan. 11-15: +8.91R
Jan. 4-8: +5R
Snap Backs (SB) +13.89R
Jan. 25-29: 0R
Jan. 19-22: +5.77R
Jan. 11-15: +2.62R
Jan. 4-8: +5.5R
Double Pump (DP) +12.93R
Jan. 25-29: +3.43R
Jan. 19-22: +3R
Jan. 11-15: +5R
Jan. 4-8: +1.5R
Other Noteworthy Statistics
Win rate was under 50% in 3 of the 4 weeks. Being right has nothing to do with making money.
The main reason the strategies produced profit is because the reward:risk ratio averaged near 2.5:1 for the month. When winners are way bigger than losses, winning often is not required. This is not theoretical reward:risk. The actual reward to risk based on closed trades needs to remain elevated to trade well.
My Own Personal Trading Observations/Areas to Work On
My morning routine is extremely important. If I don’t complete it with intention and focus I tend to be more distracted throughout my trading time and that decreases performance. If there are things that I need to get done, or that are pulling at my attention, I need to handle them and have a little negotiation with myself before trading, or not trade and focus on the other thing if it is that urgent.
The numbers below are based on actual trades and represent whether skipping trades was a bigger problem, or taken trades I shouldn’t be in.
Trades Not Taken: 16R missed (or 18.5 with optional chance to add)
Trades Taken: 6.38R lost
Missed trades resulted in me missing out on 16 to 18.5R. Therefore, being a little too cautious costs me a lot more than taking trades by mistake (6.38R). As discussed in several weekly reviews, I can afford to be a bit more aggressive. I need to maintain focus even when everything isn’t perfect and consider the overall price action. With the knowing that overall the strategies tend to win.