Monday are Friday were okay for me, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday were grinds with not much movement during the 2-hour window trade (8:30 to 10:30 am EST). This is my break down from the trading week of Jan. 11 to 15 2021
Totals for this week:
- +7.29R (+12.86R from last week)
- “R” is a standardized risk amount. It could be 1% of the account, 0.5% of the account, or any amount you choose based on your position sizing method.
- 9 wins /24 trades = 37.5% win rate (47% last week)
- Potential 17.25R. In other words, my mistakes cost me about 10R this week alone.
- 42% efficiency (7.29 / 17.25) Shows that the lower profit this week, and my low win rate was due to mistakes on my part, and not market conditions. 58% efficiency last week.
- Reward to Risk: 2.289 / 0.8 = 2.86 This definitely saved my ass this week with the low win rate (2.77:1 last week)
- 2.4 + 2.5 + 1.3 + 2.15 + 2.21 + 2.52 + 2.49 + 2.5 + 2.52 = 20.59 /9 = 2.289
- 0.77+0.98+1+1.14+1.11+0.15+0.88+0.94+0.86+0.91+1+0.5+0.5+1.28+1 = 12.02 / 15 = 0.8
- Trades not taken: 2.5 + 4 = 6R
- Trades taken that shouldn’t have been: 1.1 + 0.94 + 1.41 = 3.45
- Missing trades cost me more in lost profit than bad trades taken. Can afford to be more aggressive and make sure I am in those trades.
A lot of these stats you can track in the free and downloadable forex day trading log (Excel spreadsheet).
These are optimal results, including trades I missed and excluding trades I shouldn’t have been in. This is so I can ascertain over time which strategies are working the best and producing the most profit potential.
Rounded Tops and Bottoms strategy and profit: 8.91R (-0.77 + -0.98 + 2.4 + -1 + 2.5 + 1.3 + -0.15 + -0.86 + 2.21 + -1 + 2.5 + 2.52 + -1.28 + -1 + 2.52)
Snap Back Strategy trades and profit: 2.62R (-1.14 + 2.15 -0.88 + 2.49)
Double Pumps Strategy and profit: 5R (2.5 + 2.5)
Squeeze plays: -0.5R
There was a lack of the Snap Backs, Double Pumps and Squeeze Plays primarily because much of the week lacked strong trending movement during my hours of trade.
Daily Charts and Trades
Monday: +2.15R. 4.65R potential as a result of a 2.5R trade not taken. 2 wins out of 5 trades for 40% win rate.
Tuesday: -1.11R. Potential to be flat as a result of a 1.1R loss that should not have been taken. 1/4 for 25% win rate.
Wednesday: +1.68R. 2.62R potential as 0.94R loss should have been avoided. 2/5 for 40% win rate.
Thursday: -2.91R. 2.5R Potential. Missed 4R (6.5even if kept trading) and took 1.41R of losses I shouldn’t have been in. 0/4 for 0% win rate.
Friday: 7.48R. 4/6 for 66.6% win rate.
My Focus for the Upcoming Week
By looking at your own stats and breaking them down as I have above, it makes it fairly easy to see areas that need work.
My efficiency was horrible this week. That is money my strategies should have captured, but that I failed to grab. I left a lot of money on the table. While I did lose some money to bad trades, I missed out on more from trades not taken. So just like last week, I need to focus on pulling the trigger when a valid trade sets up.
Focus overall is still lacking during my 2 hour window. I have been getting distracted, so I am continuing to work on bringing my focus back to the current price action and writing on my charts, in real time, which trades have potential to set up and what would invalidate them. Over time, this will help eliminate some of the bad trades taken, and help reduce the number of missed trades.
By Cory Mitchell, CMT
I will have a new EURUSD day trading course out by June, but in the meantime, learn the fundamentals of trading the forex market with the Forex Trading Introduction Course.