A look at how high and low volatility affects day trading in the EURUSD, how to determine current volatility, and how current volatility compares to historic averages. The article looks at overall volatility, volatility by hours of the day, and volatility by day of the week.

Current overall EURUSD day trading conditions: “Good; a mixture of high movement days with some low movement days. The daily average action in the EURUSD is “common” trading conditions. If you trade for many years, this is the type of movement you will see most often.”

The 10-week average for daily movement (high minus low) in the EURUSD is 74 pips. That’s the average daily range for the most heavily traded currency pair in the world. The 5-week average is 72, and the 3-week average is 73 pips. Overall, daily average movement is quite stable currently.

Over the last 5 years, the daily average range has spent most of its time above 70 pips, and has even spent some time above 110 pips.  But 100 pips or greater of daily movement in the EURUSD is actually pretty rare and usually doesn’t last that long.

Currently, we are in the common range of higher volatility between 70 to 100 pips of movement per day.

When average daily movement is above 50 pips, there’s ample profit opportunity for day trading most days. As volatility drops off, sometimes the opportunities do as well. In late 2019 and early 2020—when average daily volatility was down near 45 pips per day (24-hour period)— I was getting more emails from frustrated traders. They were no longer seeing strong trending moves during the day, something they had capitalized on when volatility was higher. With smaller price moves, spreads and commissions cut more deeply into profits.

In August, September, and October of 2021, volatility also dropped off, this time averaging about 50 pips per day. During this time I saw some drop-off in overall profitability compared to the months with more movement. Even with the lower movement, profits for the EURUSD Day Trading Course strategies remained robust and well in profitable territory.

Through 2022 overall movement increased significantly. Through the first several months of 2023, daily movement decreased but a good amount of daily movement is still present.

Our daily profit isn’t perfectly correlated to the EURUSD’s daily average movement. Sometimes we can make a killing in low movement, and sometimes trading in volatile conditions can be hard. It depends on how many valid trade setups we get each day, week, and month. But as a general guide, I tend to find more trading opportunities when the price is moving more compared to moving less.

Right now is a good time to be a EURUSD day trader. There is ample movement (most days, not all) providing good setups BUT PATIENCE IS ALWAYS REQUIRED. Most days we will get multiple quality trade setups in a two-hour period. But some days there may be none. These are actually “typical” conditions. What we are likely to see most often (if you trade for a decade or more). When movement is below 50 or above 90 pips of movement per day, those are the rarer times.

See recent charts and trades here.

EURUSD Volatility by Day of the Week and Hour of Day

Here is the EURUSD movement by hour of the day. This chart is in Eastern Standard Time (EST). Adjust to your own time zone accordingly. The chart shows how many pips the pair moves on average each hour. It is a 10-week average.

Movement picks up around 2 am EST when Germany opens. This larger movement continues till about noon EST. It then starts to die off, with a bit of a resurgence around 1900 when Tokyo opens.

The hours with the most movement are 0200 up to noon EST. This large window is the ideal time for day trading (based on strategies I discuss on this site). You can continue trading after noon, but expect less movement. After 1500 it really dies.

I’m based in Mountain Time (2 hours back of EST), and I trade between 6 a.m. and 8 a.m. (8 to 10 EST). This is a great time of day to trade as the biggest movement of the day typically occurs between 8 a.m. and about 11:30 a.m. EST.

EURUSD Average Movement By Day of Week

The day of the week sometimes matters. During some stretches, certain days of the week tend to be much quieter/more active than others. Therefore, it is worthwhile to check the stats periodically.

Right now, Thursdays tend to be the most volatile, and Mondays tend to have the least amount of movement.

Here is the data over the past 10 weeks.

• Monday has averaged 56 pips of movement
• Tuesday: 73
• Wednesday: 72
• Thursday: 91
• Friday: 79

As mentioned, right now is still a good time to be a EURUSD day trader. And it almost always is! There have been only a few months in the last five years where the movement got really low. And even then, with being selective on trades there was still plenty of profit potential.

The Forex Trading Sessions

The forex trading sessions, and which session we are in, has a big impact on EURUSD volatility and price movement.

The forex market is open 24 hours a day, from 5 pm EST on Sunday, to 5 pm EST on Friday. 24-hour trading is possible because there are always countries open for business at all times throughout the day.

On Sunday evening, Asia and Australia open for business, then the European markets open, then the North and South American markets open. Throughout the 24-hour period, there is always a major financial center open. To name a few: Sydney, Tokyo, London, New York/Toronto. When you go to trade, no matter what time of day it is, someone is willing to transact with you, because banks, brokers, and businesses are open for business somewhere.

While there are many countries and cities open for business at any given time, many traders refer to the London, New York, Sydney, and Tokyo sessions because they are major financial centers that all link up to form a continuous 24-hour trading day.

Forex sessions in EST.

How the EURUSD Moves During the Different Sessions

As a general guideline, the EURUSD tends to move the most during the London and New York sessions. This is because all of Europe is trading and all of North and South America are trading at the same time. The “overlap” period between London and New York tends to see the most price action.

The chart below shows how days typically play out, and how movement increases and decreases at certain times of the day.

Oct. 2022 – Represents how movement is typically structured throughout the day

The US session is associated with the New York open, even though most of the country is open for business 1 to 3 hours prior.

While the number of pips a currency moves in a day will change over time, the highest and lowest points tend to stay the same. For example, we can see that the activity in the EURUSD picks up at 0200 when Germany opens, and especially at 0300 when London opens. After that, movement tends to remain elevated till about 1200 to 1300, and sees a spike near 0800 when the US opens.

Price movement tends to be highest when London and New York are both open, from 0800 to 1200. I enjoy trading around this time. But really any time between about 2 AM and 3 PM EST is good for day trading the EURUSD…that’s a big window.

By Cory Mitchell, CMT

For strategies, and an entire method of day trading the EURUSD, check out my EURUSD Day Trading Course. It outlines what you need to get started, tradable patterns that occur nearly every day, and how to improve along the way.

Disclaimer: Nothing in this article is personal investment advice, or advice to buy or sell anything. Trading is risky and can result in substantial losses, even more than deposited if using leverage.