A look at how high and low volatility affects day trading in the EURUSD, how to determine current volatility, and how current volatility compares to historic averages. The article looks at overall volatility and volatility by hour of the day and day of the week.

Current overall EURUSD day trading conditions are decent but with lower movement: “EURUSD daily movement is lower than we often see, but this type of volatility is still common. There have been extended periods historically where daily movement is lower than it is currently, but much of the time daily average movement is higher.“

The 10-week average for daily movement (high minus low) in the EURUSD is 54 pips. That’s the average daily range for the most heavily traded currency pair in the world. The 5-week average is 58, and the 3-week average is 60 pips.

Over the last 5 years, the daily average range has spent most of its time above 60 pips, and has even spent some time above 110 pips.  But 100 pips or greater of daily movement in the EURUSD is pretty rare and usually doesn’t last that long.

Currently, we are in the Common Lower Volatility range. These “common” areas are the type of volatility we see most often.

When the average daily movement is above 50 pips, there’s usually profit opportunity for day trading most days. But not all.

In this lower movement, we are more likely to have one, two, or possibly more “no trade days” per week. This is based on trading approximately 1 to 2 hours per day. The longer we trade the more chances there are to spot trading opportunities. But if trading for 1 to 2 hours, like I usually do, expect multiple no trade days each month.

As volatility drops off, sometimes the opportunities do as well. In late 2019 and early 2020—when average daily volatility was down near 45 pips per day (24-hour period)— I was getting more emails from frustrated traders. They were no longer seeing strong trending moves during the day, something they had capitalized on when volatility was higher. With smaller price moves, spreads and commissions cut more deeply into profits.

In August, September, and October of 2021, volatility also dropped off, this time averaging about 50 pips per day. During this time I saw some drop-off in overall profitability compared to the months with more movement. Even with the lower movement, profits for the EURUSD Day Trading Course strategies remained robust and well in profitable territory.

Through 2022 and 2023 EURUSD daily movement was very good. Average daily movement has dropped off since the first quarter of 2024.

Our daily profit isn’t perfectly correlated to the EURUSD’s daily average movement. Sometimes we can make a killing in low movement, and sometimes trading in volatile conditions can be hard. It depends on how many valid trade setups we get each day, week, and month. But as a general guide, I tend to find more trading opportunities when the price is moving more compared to moving less.

Overall, right now is a good time to be a EURUSD day trader. There is movement (most days, not all) providing good setups BUT PATIENCE IS ALWAYS REQUIRED. I have also found I need to be more adaptable. I have been taking some trades with a 2:1 or even 1.5:1 reward:risk because that is all the market is offering (depending on your commissions, spreads, and win rate, this may not be feasible for all traders). There is still the option to wait for only 2.5:1 trades, but this requires waiting for bigger moves which may not occur as much.

See recent charts and trades here.

EURUSD Volatility by Day of the Week and Hour of Day

Here is the EURUSD movement by hour of the day. This chart is in Eastern Time. Adjust to your own time zone accordingly. The chart shows how many pips the pair moves on average each hour. It is a 10-week average.

The most movement is occurring between 8 am and 11 am Eastern. European hours, after 2 am, offer moderate movement. After 3 pm Eastern, there is very little movement until Europe reopens.

The hours with the most movement are 0200 up to 3 pm EST. This large window is the ideal time for day trading (based on strategies I discuss on this site). You can continue trading after noon, but expect less movement. After 1500 it dies.

I’m based in Mountain Time (2 hours back of EST), and I trade between 6 am and 8 am (8 to 10 EST). Usually only for an 45 minutes to an hour. This is a great time of day to trade as the biggest movement of the day typically occurs between 8 am and about 11 am EST. Near the London open is also usually a great time to day trade, but movement has been a bit lower lately during the European session.

EURUSD Average Movement By Day of Week

The day of the week sometimes matters. During some stretches, certain days of the week tend to be much quieter/more active than others. Therefore, it is worthwhile to check the stats periodically.

Right now, Fridays tend to be the most volatile, and Tuesdays tend to have the least amount of movement.

Here is the data over the past 10 weeks.

• Monday has averaged 52 pips of movement
• Tuesday: 48
• Wednesday: 55
• Thursday: 57
• Friday: 60

The Forex Trading Sessions

The forex trading sessions, and which session we are in, has a big impact on EURUSD volatility and price movement.

The forex market is open 24 hours a day, from 5 pm EST on Sunday, to 5 pm EST on Friday. 24-hour trading is possible because there are always countries open for business at all times throughout the day.

On Sunday evening, Asia and Australia open for business, then the European markets open, then the North and South American markets open. Throughout the 24 hours, there is always a major financial center open. To name a few: Sydney, Tokyo, London, New York/Toronto. When you go to trade, no matter what time of day it is, someone is willing to transact with you, because banks, brokers, and businesses are open for business somewhere.

While there are many countries and cities open for business at any given time, many traders refer to the London, New York, Sydney, and Tokyo sessions because they are major financial centers that all link up to form a continuous 24-hour trading day.

Forex sessions in Eastern Time.

How the EURUSD Moves During the Different Sessions

As a general guideline, the EURUSD tends to move the most during the London and New York sessions. This is because all of Europe is trading and all of North and South America are trading at the same time. The “overlap” period between London and New York tends to see the most price action.

The chart below shows how days typically play out, and how movement increases and decreases at certain times of the day.

Oct. 2022 – Represents how movement is typically structured throughout the day

The US session is associated with the New York open, even though most of the country is open for business 1 to 3 hours prior.

While the number of pips a currency moves in a day will change over time, the highest and lowest points tend to stay the same. For example, we can see that the activity in the EURUSD picks up at 0200 when Germany opens, and especially at 0300 when London opens. After that, movement tends to remain elevated till about 1200 to 1300, and sees a spike near 0800 when the US opens.

Price movement tends to be highest when London and New York are both open, from 0800 to 1200. I enjoy trading around this time. But really any time between about 2 AM and 3 PM Eastern is good for day trading the EURUSD…that’s a big window.

By Cory Mitchell, CMT

For strategies, and an entire method of day trading the EURUSD, check out my EURUSD Day Trading Course. It outlines what you need to get started, tradable patterns that occur nearly every day, and how to improve along the way.

Disclaimer: Nothing in this article is personal investment advice, or advice to buy or sell anything. Trading is risky and can result in substantial losses, even more than deposited if using leverage.